Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 12.924658 15.742520 18.876092 22.597737 26.875017 31.614658 37.240610
2026-01-25 8.618709 12.144770 16.504748 22.199144 29.339925 37.895250 48.807994
2026-02-01 6.459490 10.240619 15.322176 22.448877 31.963291 43.994899 60.098493
2026-02-08 4.844540 8.572501 13.976653 22.042932 33.397561 48.407957 69.289408
2026-02-15 3.645629 7.182047 12.692000 21.401440 34.255714 51.919164 77.315589
2026-02-22 3.029658 6.548811 12.376242 22.030268 36.827533 57.785975 88.694631
2026-03-01 2.381414 5.692572 11.541412 21.711310 37.904378 61.537335 97.263924
2026-03-08 1.931672 5.083909 10.998347 21.744580 39.444620 65.962404 106.915400
2026-03-15 1.458706 4.293176 9.987734 20.848096 39.401433 67.980763 113.116081
2026-03-22 1.249917 4.016644 9.874604 21.458908 41.786346 73.733834 125.001950
2026-03-29 1.047664 3.695629 9.615873 21.761814 43.652237 78.744205 135.945038
2026-04-05 0.887262 3.430585 9.422766 22.149234 45.661081 84.041898 147.496960
2026-04-12 0.752516 3.209452 9.323667 22.776813 48.258276 90.611419 161.620379
2026-04-19 0.577575 2.801684 8.736672 22.383141 49.030675 94.297706 171.473776
2026-04-26 0.470423 2.560882 8.488202 22.635037 50.969609 99.972773 184.666686
2026-05-03 0.357242 2.237396 7.963080 22.226474 51.624241 103.492150 194.500079
2026-05-10 0.261550 1.918401 7.370644 21.580765 51.750531 106.079648 202.875253
2026-05-17 0.221088 1.815027 7.347981 22.213729 54.401725 113.146800 218.856466
2026-05-24 0.165911 1.597115 6.940794 21.892676 55.114646 116.813720 229.276844
2026-05-31 0.129233 1.445664 6.696559 21.926165 56.535779 121.786206 242.040253
2026-06-07 0.087147 1.209555 6.110689 21.023759 55.930116 123.037275 248.480472
2026-06-14 0.072801 1.151646 6.116373 21.638612 58.574611 130.353819 265.579532
2026-06-21 0.057773 1.068673 6.010618 21.943512 60.562180 136.515758 280.842358